Window on Eurasia

Plans to Unite Moscow City, Oblast Prove Divisive

Paul Goble

Vienna, June 19, 2006 – Kremlin plans to unite Moscow city and Moscow
oblast into a single federal unit are already dividing the residents of these
two neighboring areas and indeed the population of the country as a
whole, with a majority of city residents now opposed while two-third of
the residents of the oblast saying they favor such a step.

According to the results of a poll conducted by the All-Russian Center
for the Study of Public Opinion (VTsIOM) that were published on Friday,
58 percent of Moscow city residents say they are against combining the
two, with only 28 percent saying they are in favor
[http://www.wciom.ru/], June 16].

Meanwhile, in the surrounding region, 66 percent of the residents say
they approve of the idea, while only 17 percent say they are against
it. For residents of the country as a whole, 37 percent say they back
unification of the two, while 29 percent say they oppose it. At
present, 34 percent said they found the question difficult to answer.

Asked who they thought would be the beneficiaries of unification, three
percent of those living in the city of Moscow said that residents of
the city would be. Thirty percent said that residents of the oblast would
be the winners. Twenty-one percent said that both would win, and 37
percent said both would lose.

Asked the same question, 11 percent of the residents of the oblast said
that residents of the city of Moscow would benefit more. Meanwhile, 40
percent of them said that residents of the oblast would be the winners,
28 percent said both would benefit, and 15 percent said both would
lose.

And for the sample of all Russians polled by VTsIOM, thirteen percent
said that residents of Moscow would come out on top were the two units
to be combined, 29 percent said the residents of the oblast would win,
with 20 percent saying both would win and 13 percent indicating that
both would lose from this process.

The pollsters also asked the entire sample the three positive and three
negative things that those sampled believe would be the positive and
negative consequences of the combination of these two federal units
into a single one. Unfortunately, the data as published are not broken down
by city and region.

Among the positive things Russians believe the combination of the two
would bring are an improvement in the level of life and social security
of the oblast population (24 percent), the provision of new areas for
urban development (19 percent), and a reduction in the number of
regional bureaucrats (16 percent).

Among the negative things they believe that this combination would
entail are an increase in the cost of housing in Moscow oblast (25
percent), the provision of new areas for urban development (20
percent), increased problems in administration of the area (18 percent), and an
increase in the number of regional bureaucrats (16 percent).

In addition to the obvious overlap in these positive and negative
consequences – note that more space for development and the number of
regional bureaucrats garner roughly the same percentages as positive
and negative phenomena – this poll highlights just how contentious any
move to unite the two regions could be.

Obviously, some of these opinions are more deeply held than are others.
To give just one example, the VTsIOM analysts note that of those
Russians who do not approve this step, only nine percent are
“categorically” against it, while of those who back it, only 13
percent are “unqualifiedly” for it.

But if both the Kremlin and the Moscow city government of Mayor Yuri
Luzhkov press ahead with this effort, such attitudes are likely to
harden, not only in the two regions most directly affected but also by
others fearful that the combination of Moscow city and Moscow oblast
would have consequences for them as well.