Window on Eurasia

No Azerbaijani Revolution in Iran Likely, Moscow Specialist Says

Paul Goble

Vienna, June 16, 2006 – Radzhab Safarov, a senior Moscow specialist on Iran
who serves as an advisor to the chairman of the Russian Duma, has
dismissed the suggestion of some observers that ethnic Azerbaijanis
living in Iran may constitute a threat to the Iranian political system.

Indeed, he argues in a commentary published in St. Petersburg’s
„Delo” this week that both the scandal involving the publication of
a cartoon there showing a cockroach speaking Azeri and the ensuring
demonstrations may have been the work of Western intelligence services
[https://ec.ut.ee/exchweb/bin/redir.asp?URL=http://www.islam-info.ru/index.php?action=show%26req=news%26nid=1504].

Safarov, himself an ethnic Tajik, said that he had been in Iran many
times and had never „observed a particular sharpness of nationality
problems” there. And he pointed out that „a number of figures in
the Iranian government are themselves Azerbaijanis,” something he
suggested helped to guarantee a „balanced” resolution of any
problems that do arise.

He added that „the demand for the recognition of Azerbaijanis as 'a
state forming nation’ in fact is the desire and aspiration of the
basic mass of the Azerbaijani diaspora which [in his estimation]
numbers 15 to 16 million people or 24-25 percent of Iran’s population,
while the Persians form 45 to 51 percent of the total.

„Therefore,” Safarov continued, „the Azerbaijani community in
essence cannot be the state-forming diaspora. The state forming nation
are the Persians who form an absolute majority of the population.”

Moreover, he said, the current wave of Azerbaijnai unrest is taking
place „primarily in those regions where the standard of living is
above average” – a situation that Safarov insisted shows that
„there is no social basis for the protest actions of the
Azerbaijanis” in Iran, whatever those who back them may think.

And then Safarov suggested that what was going on with the Azerbaijanis
of Iran would not be occuring Without the participation of Western
structures.” Nonetheless, he said, their goal of destabilizing Iran
in this way „will not be achieved because on the basis questions of
internal and foreign policy Iranian society is as before sufficiently
monolithic.”

Safarov’s remarks followed an interview that „Delo” condcuted
with Rasim Musabekov, identified by the paper as „an independent political
scientist” in Baku. His position on what is taking place in Iran now
and what may take place in the future diverged from that of Safarov on
almost every point.

Not only did Musabekov argue that there were more ethnic Azerbaijanis
in Iran than Safarov allowed – 20 to 25 million or about a third of the
population – but he said that this community had never viewed itself
as an ethnic minority but rather as a „state-forming” ethnos along
with the Persians.

Moreover, he noted that „over the course of the last thousand years,
Iran has been headed by Azerbaijani dynasties, and all the armef forces
of the government consisted of Azerbaijanis. That is, it was the
Azerbaijanis who created, defended and consolidatedthe state. They have
not forgotten about this.”

Nor have the Persians, he said, but the rise of Islam there has had an
impact. „Islamic ideology is supernational, but just as Russian
culture and the Russian language formed the basis of the supernational
Soviet ideology, so too the basis of Islamic ideology in Iran is
thoroughly Persian.” And now Persians are tyring to „assimilate”
the Azerbaijanis.

According to Musabekov, „the role of foreign factors in the current
situation is much exagerated.” Instead, he suggested, those trying
to figure out what will happen there should focus on the domestic
situation within Iran rather than pointing fingers at Western security agencies.

Regarding what will happen next, the Azerbaijani political scientist
made three observations. First, he said, it should be remembered that
„all Iranian revolutions began in Azerbaijani provinces or with the
Azerbaijani population.” Second, he noted, the Iranian leadership
remains very much divided between those who want to use force and those
who want a compromise.

And third, he said, Tehran’s efforts to play divide and rule ethnic
politics, to set the Kurds and Azerbaijanis at odds, or especially to
use its own military against the Azerbaijanis could have the „most
dangerous” of consequences. That is because, he pointed out, so many
of the officers in the Iranian military are themselves Azerbaijanis.

„When they see that the state apparatus is using htem against their
co-ethnics, then it is not excluded that a split of the entire
government apparatus and all the force structures could begin in
Iran.” That in turn, he suggested, could lead to demands for cultural
autonomy or the federalization of Iran, but not to the country’s
disintegration, something „no one wants.”